Model Evaluation for Geospatial Problems

Jing Wang, Tyler Hallman, Laurel Hopkins, John Burns Kilbride, W. Douglas Robinson, Rebecca Hutchinson

Keywords: cross-validation, spatial data, spatial autocorrelation, covariate shift

Abstract: Geospatial problems often involve spatial autocorrelation and covariate shift, which violate the independent, identically distributed assumption underlying standard cross-validation. In this work, we establish a theoretical criterion for unbiased cross-validation, introduce a preliminary categorization framework to guide practitioners in choosing suitable cross-validation strategies for geospatial problems, reconcile conflicting recommendations on best practices, and develop a novel, straightforward method with both theoretical guarantees and empirical success.

Submission Number: 15