Hyperbolic Online Time Stream Modeling

Ramit Sawhney, Shivam Agarwal, Megh Thakkar, Arnav Wadhwa, Rajiv Ratn Shah

Abstract: The rapidly rising ubiquity and dissemination of online information such as social media text and news improve user accessibility towards financial markets, however, modeling these vast streams of irregular, temporal data poses a challenge. Such temporal streams of information show power-law dynamics, scale-free characteristics, and time irregularities that sequential models are unable to accurately model. In this work, we propose the first Hierarchical Time-Aware Hyperbolic LSTM (HTLSTM), which leverages the Riemannian manifold for encoding the scale-free nature of a sequence of text in a time-aware fashion. Through experiments on three financial tasks: stock trading, equity price movement prediction, and financial risk prediction, we demonstrate HTLSTM's applicability for modeling temporal sequences of online information. On real-world data from four global stock markets and three stock indices spanning data in English and Chinese, we make a step towards time-aware text modeling via hyperbolic geometry.