Transductive Conformal Inference for Full Ranking

Jean-Baptiste Fermanian, Pierre Humbert, Gilles Blanchard

Keywords: Conformal Prediction, Ranking Algorithm, False Coverage Proportion

TL;DR: Conformal sets are constructed for the relative ranks of numerous items ordered by a black box algorithm.

Abstract: We introduce a method based on Conformal Prediction (CP) to quantify the uncertainty of full ranking algorithms. We focus on a specific scenario where $n+m$ items are to be ranked by some ``black box'' algorithm. It is assumed that the relative (ground truth) ranking of $n$ of them is known. The objective is then to quantify the error made by the algorithm on the ranks of the $m$ new items among the total $(n+m)$. In such a setting, the true ranks of the $n$ original items in the total $(n+m)$ depend on the (unknown) true ranks of the $m$ new ones. Consequently, we have no direct access to a calibration set to apply a classical CP method. To address this challenge, we propose to construct distribution-free bounds of the unknown conformity scores using recent results on the distribution of conformal p-values. Using these scores upper bounds, we provide valid prediction sets for the rank of any item. We also control the false coverage proportion, a crucial quantity when dealing with multiple prediction sets. Finally, we empirically show on both synthetic and real data the efficiency of our CP method for state-of-the-art ranking algorithms such as RankNet or LambdaMart.

Primary Area: General machine learning (supervised, unsupervised, online, active, etc.)

Submission Number: 12949