Learning Dynamic Causal Graphs Under Parametric Uncertainty via Polynomial Chaos Expansions

ICLR 2026 Conference Submission605 Authors

Keywords: Causal Discovery, Polynomial Chaos Expansion, Parametric Uncertainty, Functional Causal Models, Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract: Existing causal discovery methods are fundamentally limited by the assumption of a static causal graph, a constraint that fails in real-world systems where causal relationships dynamically vary with underlying system parameters. This discrepancy prevents the application of causal discovery in critical domains such as industrial process control, where understanding how causal effects change is essential. We address this gap by proposing a new paradigm that moves beyond static graphs to learn functional causal representations. We introduce a framework that models each causal link not as a static weight but as a function of measurable system parameters. By representing these functions using Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE), we develop a tractable method to learn the complete parametric causal structure from observational data. We provide theoretical proofs for the identifiability of these functional models and introduce a novel, provably convergent learning algorithm. On a large-scale chemical reactor dataset, our method learns the dynamic causal structure with a 90.9% F1-score, nearly doubling the performance of state-of-the-art baselines and providing an interpretable model of how causal mechanisms evolve.

Primary Area: causal reasoning

Submission Number: 605