A New Approach to Backtracking Counterfactual Explanations: A Unified Causal Framework for Efficient Model Interpretability

Pouria Fatemi, Ehsan Sharifian, Mohammad Hossein Yassaee

Abstract: Counterfactual explanations enhance interpretability by identifying alternative inputs that produce different outputs, offering localized insights into model decisions. However, traditional methods often neglect causal relationships, leading to unrealistic examples. While newer approaches integrate causality, they are computationally expensive. To address these challenges, we propose an efficient method called BRACE based on backtracking counterfactuals that incorporates causal reasoning to generate actionable explanations. We first examine the limitations of existing methods and then introduce our novel approach and its features. We also explore the relationship between our method and previous techniques, demonstrating that it generalizes them in specific scenarios. Finally, experiments show that our method provides deeper insights into model outputs.

Lay Summary: In many everyday decisions—like whether to grant a loan or recommend a medical test—AI models make accurate predictions but seldom explain why they reach a given outcome or what could be changed to alter it. To help people understand and trust these “black-box” systems, we present BRACE (Backtracking Recourse and Actionable Counterfactual Explanations), a fast, unified framework that uses simple cause-and-effect links among inputs (for example, how income and debt interact) and efficiently searches for the smallest, most realistic tweaks needed to flip a model’s prediction. In experiments on a standard loan-risk dataset, BRACE consistently generated actionable recommendations, such as modestly reducing the loan amount and the repayment period, which were more insightful than existing methods. By delivering these concrete “what-if” scenarios, BRACE empowers users to understand and influence AI decisions, enhancing trust and transparency in high-stakes settings.

Primary Area: Social Aspects->Accountability, Transparency, and Interpretability

Keywords: Interpretability, Explainable Artificial Intelligence, Causal Inference, Counterfactuals, Structural Causal Models

Submission Number: 11728