TianQuan-S2S: A Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Global Weather Model via Incorporate Climatology State

Guowen Li, Xintong Liu, Yang Liu, Mengxuan Chen, Shilei Cao, Xuehe Wang, Juepeng Zheng, Jinxiao Zhang, Haoyuan Liang, Lixian Zhang, Jiuke Wang, Meng Jin, Hong Cheng, Haohuan Fu

Keywords: Subseasonal Weather Forecasting

TL;DR: This paper introduces TianQuan-S2S, a novel machine learning model that provides accurate global daily mean forecasts up to 45 days by integrating climatology state information.

Abstract: Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasting is vital for decision-making in agriculture, energy production, and emergency management. However, it remains a challenging and underexplored problem due to the chaotic nature of the weather system. Recent data-driven studies have shown promising results, but their performance is limited by the inadequate incorporation of climate states and a model tendency to degrade, progressively losing fine-scale details and yielding over-smoothed forecasts. To overcome these limitations, we propose TianQuan-S2S, a global S2S forecasting model that integrates initial weather states with climatological means via incorporating climatology into patch embedding and enhancing variability capture through an uncertainty-augmented Transformer. Extensive experiments on the Earth Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) reanalysis dataset demonstrate that our model yields a significant improvement in both deterministic and ensemble forecasting over the climatology mean, traditional numerical methods, and data-driven models. Ablation studies empirically show the effectiveness of our model designs. Remarkably, our model outperforms skillful numerical ECMWF-S2S and advanced data-driven Fuxi-S2S in key meteorological variables. The code implementation can be found in https://github.com/zhangminglang42/TianQuan.

Primary Area: applications to computer vision, audio, language, and other modalities

Submission Number: 1625