Monte Carlo Expected Threat (MOCET) Scoring

Joseph Kim, Saahith Potluri

Keywords: AI Safety, Biosecurity, Large Language Models, Risk Assessment, Threat Modeling, Monte Carlo Simulation, Evaluation Metrics, Catastrophic Risk

Abstract: Evaluating and measuring AI Safety Level (ASL) threats are crucial for guiding stakeholders to implement safeguards that keep risks within acceptable limits. ASL-3+ models present a unique risk in their ability to uplift novice non-state actors, especially in the realm of biosecurity. Existing evaluation metrics, such as LAB-Bench, BioLP-bench, and WMDP, can reliably assess model uplift and domain knowledge. However, metrics that better contextualize “real-world risks” are needed to inform the safety case for LLMs, along with scalable, open-ended metrics to keep pace with their rapid advancements. To address both gaps, we introduce MOCET, an interpretable and doubly-scalable metric (automatable and open-ended) that can quantify real-world risks.

Submission Number: 17