TEN-DM: Topology-Enhanced Diffusion Model for Spatio-Temporal Event Prediction

ICLR 2026 Conference Submission16261 Authors

Keywords: Spatio-temporal point process, Diffusion model, Topological data analysis

Abstract: Spatio-temporal point process (STPP) data appear in many domains. A natural way to model them is to describe how the instantaneous event rate varies over space and time given the observed history which enables interpretation, interaction detection, and forecasting. Traditional parametric kernel-based models, while historically dominant, struggle to capture complex nonlinear patterns. In contrast, deep learning methods leverage the representational power of neural networks to aggregate historical events and integrate spatio-temporal point processes. However, existing deep learning methods often process space and time independently, overlooking the spatio-temporal dependencies. To address this limitation, we propose a novel method called Topology-ENhanced Diffusion Model (TEN-DM), including two key components namely spatio-temporal graph construction and multimodal topological feature representation learning. Further, we use temporal query technique to effectively capture periodic temporal patterns for learning effective temporal representations. Extensive experiments show the effectiveness of TEN-DM on multiple STPP datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Primary Area: learning on time series and dynamical systems

Submission Number: 16261