Continual Lifelong Causal Effect Inference with Real World Evidence

Zhixuan Chu, Stephen Rathbun, Sheng Li

Keywords: continual learning, incremental learning, causal effect inference, representation learning, treatment effect estimation

Abstract: The era of real world evidence has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data, which much facilitates the development of causal effect inference. Although significant advances have been made to overcome the challenges in causal effect estimation, such as missing counterfactual outcomes and selection bias, they only focus on source-specific and stationary observational data. In this paper, we investigate a new research problem of causal effect inference from incrementally available observational data, and present three new evaluation criteria accordingly, including extensibility, adaptability, and accessibility. We propose a Continual Causal Effect Representation Learning method for estimating causal effect with observational data, which are incrementally available from non-stationary data distributions. Instead of having access to all seen observational data, our method only stores a limited subset of feature representations learned from previous data. Combining the selective and balanced representation learning, feature representation distillation, and feature transformation, our method achieves the continual causal effect estimation for new data without compromising the estimation capability for original data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of continual causal effect inference and the effectiveness of our method.

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