Uncertainty Quantification for Regression: A Unified Framework based on Kernel Scores

Christopher Bülte, Yusuf Sale, Gitta Kutyniok, Eyke Hüllermeier

Keywords: Uncertainty quantification, supervised regression, scoring rules

TL;DR: We propose a new framework for uncertainty quantification in regression, based on proper scoring rules and kernel scores

Abstract: Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require proper uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. In this light, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on proper scoring rules, with a particular emphasis on kernel scores. The framework unifies several well-known measures and provides a principled recipe for designing new ones whose behavior, such as tail sensitivity, robustness, and out-of-distribution responsiveness, is governed by the choice of kernel. We prove explicit correspondences between kernel-score characteristics and behavior of uncertainty measures, yielding concrete design guidelines for task-specific measures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these measures are effective in downstream tasks and reveal clear trade-offs among instantiations, including robustness and out-of-distribution detection performance.

Primary Area: probabilistic methods (Bayesian methods, variational inference, sampling, UQ, etc.)

Submission Number: 19553