Locally Connected Echo State Networks for Time Series Forecasting
Keywords: Time Series Analysis, Time Series Forecasting, TSF, Recurrent Neural Networks, RNN, Regression, Echo State Networks, ESN
TL;DR: Improved locally connected ESN method comparable with state-of-the-art on real-world time series datasets.
Abstract: Echo State Networks (ESNs) are a class of recurrent neural networks in which only a small readout regression layer is trained, while the weights of the recurrent network, termed the reservoir, are randomly assigned and remain fixed. Our work introduces the Locally Connected ESN (LCESN), a novel ESN variant with a locally connected reservoir, forced memory, and a weight adaptation strategy. LCESN significantly reduces the asymptotic time and space complexities compared to the conventional ESN, enabling substantially larger networks. LCESN also improves the memory properties of ESNs without affecting network stability. We evaluate LCESN's performance on the NARMA10 benchmark task and compare it to state-of-the-art models on nine real-world datasets. Despite the simplicity of our model and its one-shot training approach, LCESN achieves competitive results, even surpassing several state-of-the-art models. LCESN introduces a fresh approach to real-world time series forecasting and demonstrates that large, well-tuned random recurrent networks can rival complex gradient-trained feedforward models. We provide our GPU-based implementation of LCESN as an open-source library.
Primary Area: learning on time series and dynamical systems
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Submission Number: 11567
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