ONLINE RESTLESS BANDITS WITH UNOBSERVED STATES

Bowen Jiang, Bo Jiang, Jian Li, TAO LIN, Xinbing Wang, Chenghu Zhou

Keywords: Thompson Sampling, Explore-Then-Commit, online restless bandit

TL;DR: We propose TSEETC to slove the restless bandits with unknown transition kernels,unknown reward functions and unobserved states.

Abstract: We study the online restless bandit problem, where each arm evolves according to a Markov chain independently, and the reward of pulling an arm depends on both the current state of the corresponding Markov chain and the action. The agent (decision maker) does not know the transition kernels and reward functions, and cannot observe the states of arms all the time. The goal is to sequentially choose which arms to pull so as to maximize the expected cumulative rewards collected. In this paper, we propose TSEETC, a learning algorithm based on Thompson Sampling with Episodic Explore-Then-Commit. The algorithm proceeds in episodes of increasing length and each episode is divided into exploration and exploitation phases. In the exploration phase in each episode, action-reward samples are collected in a round-robin way and then used to update the posterior as a mixture of Dirichlet distributions. At the beginning of the exploitation phase, TSEETC generates a sample from the posterior distribution as true parameters. It then follows the optimal policy for the sampled model for the rest of the episode. We establish the Bayesian regret bound $\tilde {\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ for TSEETC, where $T$ is the time horizon. This is the first bound that is close to the lower bound of restless bandits, especially in an unobserved state setting. We show through simulations that TSEETC outperforms existing algorithms in regret.

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