Traj-CoA: Patient Trajectory Modeling via Chain-of-Agents for Lung Cancer Risk Prediction

Sihang Zeng, Yujuan Fu, Sitong Zhou, Zixuan Yu, Lucas Jing Liu, Jun Wen, Matthew Thompson, Ruth Etzioni, Meliha Yetisgen

Keywords: Patient Trajectory Modeling, Chain of Agents, Longitudinal EHR, Large Language Models

TL;DR: The paper introduces Traj-CoA, a multi-agent framework with a shared memory system that processes long, noisy electronic health records in sequential chunks, outperforming existing methods in zero-shot lung cancer risk prediction.

Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) offer a generalizable approach for modeling patient trajectories, but suffer from the long and noisy nature of electronic health records (EHR) data in temporal reasoning. To address these challenges, we introduce Traj-CoA, a multi-agent system involving chain-of-agents for patient trajectory modeling. Traj-CoA employs a chain of worker agents to process EHR data in manageable chunks sequentially, distilling critical events into a shared long-term memory module, EHRMem, to reduce noise and preserve a comprehensive timeline. A final manager agent synthesizes the worker agents' summary and the extracted timeline in EHRMem to make predictions. In a zero-shot one-year lung cancer risk prediction task based on five-year EHR data, Traj-CoA outperforms baselines of four categories. Analysis reveals that Traj-CoA exhibits clinically aligned temporal reasoning, establishing it as a promisingly robust and generalizable approach for modeling complex patient trajectories.

Submission Number: 73