Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers

Gerald Woo, Chenghao Liu, Akshat Kumar, Caiming Xiong, Silvio Savarese, Doyen Sahoo

Abstract: Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of *universal forecasting*, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: (i) cross-frequency learning, (ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and (iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed **M**asked Enc**o**der-based Un**i**ve**r**s**a**l T**i**me Series Forecasting Transformer (**Moirai**). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, data, and model weights can be found at https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/uni2ts.

Submission Number: 8628