A Review of Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Probabilistic Image Segmentation

TMLR Paper5437 Authors

Abstract: Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for robust decision-making. The resulting reliance on point estimates has fueled interest in probabilistic segmentation, but the literature remains fragmented. In response, this review consolidates and contextualizes foundational concepts in uncertainty modeling, including the non-trivial task of distinguishing between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty and examining their roles across four key downstream segmentation tasks, highlighting Active Learning as particularly promising. By unifying theory, terminology, and applications, we provide a coherent foundation for researchers and identify critical challenges, such as strong assumptions in spatial aggregation, lack of standardized benchmarks, and pitfalls in current uncertainty quantification methods. We identify trends such as the adoption of contemporary generative models, driven by advances in the broader field of generative modeling, with segmentation-specific innovation primarily in the conditioning mechanisms. Moreover, we observe growing interest in distribution- and sampling-free approaches to uncertainty estimation. We further propose directions for advancing uncertainty-aware segmentation in deep learning, including pragmatic strategies for disentangling different sources of uncertainty, novel uncertainty modeling approaches and improved Transformer-based backbones. In this way, we aim to support the development of more reliable, efficient, and interpretable segmentation models that effectively incorporate uncertainty into real-world applications.

Submission Length: Long submission (more than 12 pages of main content)

Assigned Action Editor: ~Xuming_He3

Submission Number: 5437