Learning with Calibration: Exploring Test-Time Computing of Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Wei Chen, Yuxuan Liang

Keywords: Spatio-Temporal Forecasting, Open-World Learning

TL;DR: We propose a novel test-time computing paradigm of spatio-temporal forecasting.

Abstract: Spatio-temporal forecasting is crucial in many domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and energy. However, real-world scenarios frequently present challenges such as signal anomalies, noise, and distributional shifts. Existing solutions primarily enhance robustness by modifying network architectures or training procedures. Nevertheless, these approaches are computationally intensive and resource-demanding, especially for large-scale applications. In this paper, we explore a _novel **t**est-**t**ime **c**omputing paradigm, namely learning with calibration, **ST-TTC**_, for **s**patio-**t**emporal forecasting. Through learning with calibration, we aim to capture periodic structural biases arising from non-stationarity during the testing phase and perform real-time bias correction on predictions to improve accuracy. Specifically, we first introduce a spectral-domain calibrator with phase-amplitude modulation to mitigate periodic shift and then propose a flash updating mechanism with a streaming memory queue for efficient test-time computation. _**ST-TTC**_ effectively bypasses complex training-stage techniques, offering an efficient and generalizable paradigm. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness, universality, flexibility and efficiency of our proposed method.

Primary Area: Machine learning for sciences (e.g. climate, health, life sciences, physics, social sciences)

Submission Number: 6767