Learning Exposure Mapping Functions for Inferring Heterogeneous Peer Effects

ICLR 2026 Conference Submission15117 Authors

Keywords: causal inference, peer effects, network interference, exposure mapping function, graph neural network

TL;DR: We propose GNN-based exposure mapping function learning to learn expressive peer exposure representation for robust heterogeneous peer effect estimation.

Abstract: Peer effect refers to the difference in counterfactual outcomes for a unit resulting from different levels of peer exposure, the extent to which the unit is exposed to the treatments, actions, or behaviors of its peers. In practice, peer exposure is typically captured through an explicitly defined exposure mapping function that aggregates peer treatments and outputs peer exposure. Exposure mapping functions range from simple functions like the number or fraction of treated friends to more sophisticated functions that allow for different peers to exert different degrees of influence. However, the true function is rarely known in practice and when the function is misspecified, this leads to biased causal effect estimation. To address this problem, the focus of our work is to move away from the need to explicitly define an exposure mapping function and instead introduce a framework that allows learning this function automatically. We develop EGONETGNN, a graph neural network (GNN), for heterogeneous peer effect estimation that automatically learns the appropriate exposure mapping function and allows for complex peer exposure mechanisms that involve not only peer treatments but also attributes of the local neighborhood, including node, edge, and structural attributes. We theoretically and empirically show that GNN models that use peer exposure based on the number or fraction of treated peers or learn peer exposure naively face difficulty accounting for such influence mechanisms. Our evaluation on synthetic and semi-synthetic network data shows that our method is more robust to different unknown underlying influence mechanisms when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Primary Area: causal reasoning

Submission Number: 15117