Tensor-Var: Variational Data Assimilation in Tensor Product Feature Space
Keywords: Variational Data Assimilation, Dynamical System, Weather Forecasting, Representation Learning
Abstract: Variational data assimilation estimates the dynamical system states by minimizing a cost function that fits the numerical models with observational data. The widely used method, four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var), has two primary challenges: (1) computationally demanding for complex nonlinear systems, and (2) relying on state-observation mappings, which are often impractical. Deep learning (DL) has been used as a more expressive class of efficient model approximators to address these challenges. However, integrating such models into 4D-Var remains challenging due to their inherent nonlinearities and the lack of theoretical guarantees for consistency in assimilation results. In this paper, we propose *Tensor-Var* to address these challenges using kernel Conditional Mean Embedding (CME). Tensor-Var improves optimization efficiency by characterizing system dynamics and state-observation mappings as linear operators, leading to a convex cost function in the feature space. Furthermore, our method provides a new perspective to incorporate CME into 4D-Var, offering theoretical guarantees of consistent assimilation results between the original and feature spaces. To improve scalability, we propose a method to learn deep features (DFs) using neural networks within the Tensor-Var framework. Experiments on chaotic systems and global weather prediction with real-time observations show that Tensor-Var outperforms conventional and DL hybrid 4D-Var baselines in accuracy while achieving efficiency comparable to the static 3D-Var method.
Primary Area: learning on time series and dynamical systems
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Submission Number: 11211
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