Consistency Calibration: Improving Uncertainty Calibration via Consistency among Perturbed Neighbors

Linwei Tao, Haolan Guo, Minjing Dong, Chang Xu

Keywords: Uncertainty Estimation, Confidence Calibration

TL;DR: A novel post-hoc calibration method inspired by LLM uncertainty estimation that adjusts predictions based on model consistency across perturbed inputs.

Abstract: Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from miscalibration, with reliability diagrams and Expected Calibration Error (ECE) being the only standard perspective for evaluating calibration performance. In this paper, we introduce the concept of consistency as an alternative perspective on model calibration, inspired by uncertainty estimation literature in large language models (LLMs). We highlight its advantages over the traditional reliability-based view. Building on this concept, we propose a post-hoc calibration method called Consistency Calibration (CC), which adjusts confidence based on the model's consistency across perturbed inputs. CC is particularly effective in locally uncertainty estimation, as it requires no additional data samples or label information, instead generating input perturbations directly from the source data. Moreover, we show that performing perturbations at the logit level significantly improves computational efficiency. We validate the effectiveness of CC through extensive comparisons with various post-hoc and training-time calibration methods, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance on standard datasets such as CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet, as well as on long-tailed datasets like ImageNet-LT.

Primary Area: other topics in machine learning (i.e., none of the above)

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Submission Number: 1027