TEDM: Time Series Forecasting with Elucidated Diffusion Models

ICLR 2026 Conference Submission17013 Authors

Keywords: Score-based generative models, Diffusion models, Stochastic Differential Equations, Time-series forecasting

Abstract: Score-based generative modeling through differential equations has driven breakthroughs in high-fidelity image synthesis, offering modular model design and efficient sampling. However, this success has not been widely translated to timeseries forecasting yet. This gap stems from the sequential nature of time series, in contrast to the unordered structure of images. Here, we extend the theoretical formulation used for images to explicitly address sequential structures. We propose a diffusion-based forecasting framework (TEDM) that adapts score estimation to temporal settings and elucidates its design space. Such a design allows empirical computation of noise and signal scaling directly from data, avoiding external schedules. Notably, this reduces sampling complexity to linear in the forecast horizon. Without elaborate preprocessing, TEDM sets new state-of-the-art results on multiple forecasting benchmarks. These results illustrate the growing potential of diffusion models beyond vision. TEDM generates low-latency forecasts using a lightweight architecture, making it ideal for real-time deployment.

Primary Area: generative models

Submission Number: 17013