Large Language Model Confidence Estimation via Black-Box Access

Tejaswini Pedapati, Amit Dhurandhar, Soumya Ghosh, Soham Dan, Prasanna Sattigeri

Keywords: Large language model, confidence estimation

TL;DR: We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model on them to estimate the confidence of outputs from large language models via just black-box/query access.

Abstract: Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of Flan-ul2, Llama-13b and Mistral-7b on four benchmark Q\&A tasks as well as of Pegasus-large and BART-large on two benchmark summarization tasks with it surpassing baselines by even over $10\%$ (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Primary Area: applications to computer vision, audio, language, and other modalities

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Submission Number: 7061