Adjusting Prediction Model Through Wasserstein Geodesic for Causal Inference

ICLR 2026 Conference Submission17942 Authors

Keywords: causal inference

Abstract: Causal inference estimates the treatment effect by comparing the potential outcomes of the treated and control groups. Due to the existence of confounders, the distributions of treated and control groups are imbalanced, resulting in limited generalization ability of the outcome prediction model, \ie, the prediction model trained on one group cannot perform well on the other group. To tackle this, existing methods usually adjust confounders to learn balanced representations for aligning the distributions. However, these methods could suffer from the over-balancing issue that predictive information about outcomes is removed during adjustment. In this paper, we propose to adjust the outcome prediction model to improve its generalization ability on both groups simultaneously, so that the over-balancing issue caused by confounder adjustment can be avoided. To address the challenge of large distribution discrepancy between groups during model adjustment, we propose to generate intermediate groups through the Wasserstein geodesic, which smoothly connects the control and treated groups. Based on this, we gradually adjust the outcome prediction model between consecutive groups by a self-training paradigm. To further enhance the performance of the model, we filter the generated samples to select high-quality samples for learning. We provide the theoretical analysis regarding our method, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several benchmark datasets in terms of multiple evaluation metrics.

Primary Area: causal reasoning

Submission Number: 17942