AmortizedPeriod: Attention-based Amortized Inference for Periodicity Identification

Published: 16 Jan 2024, Last Modified: 17 Apr 2024ICLR 2024 posterEveryoneRevisionsBibTeX
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Keywords: Periodicity Identification, Probabilistic Models, Amortized Inference, Attention, Time Series Analysis
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TL;DR: A novel amortized inference framework is proposed for accurate and fast periodicity identification
Abstract: Periodic patterns are a fundamental characteristic of time series in natural world, with significant implications for a range of disciplines, from economics to cloud systems. However, the current literature on periodicity detection faces two key challenges: limited robustness in real-world scenarios and a lack of memory to leverage previously observed time series to accelerate and improve inference on new data. To overcome these obstacles, this paper presents AmortizedPeriod, an innovative approach to periodicity identification based on amortized variational inference that integrates Bayesian statistics and deep learning. Through the Bayesian generative process, our method flexibly captures the dependencies of the periods, trends, noise, and outliers in time series, while also considering missing data and irregular periods in a robust manner. In addition, it utilizes the evidence lower bound of the log-likelihood of the observed time series as the loss function to train a deep attention inference network, facilitating knowledge transfer from the seen time series (and their labels) to unseen ones. Experimental results show that AmortizedPeriod surpasses the state-of-the-art methods by a large margin of 28.5% on average in terms of micro $F_1$-score, with at least 55% less inference time.
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Primary Area: probabilistic methods (Bayesian methods, variational inference, sampling, UQ, etc.)
Submission Number: 4751