Tipping-Points and Robustness of Sea Ice using Koopman Mode DecompositionDownload PDF

01 Aug 2023AAAI 2023 Spring Symposium Series ACTD SubmissionReaders: Everyone
Keywords: climate model, tipping point, Koopman Operator, Arcitc Sea Ice, Dynamical Systems
Abstract: We demonstrate the application of Koopman Operator Theory (KOT) to model Arctic sea ice concentrations on decadal timescales and to identify potential climate tipping-points. Koopman-based models are computationally inexpensive to train and evaluate compared to traditional climate models, enabling robustness analyses of long-term climate trends and sensitivity analyses of the trends to various assumptions and uncertainties.We identify a potential tipping-point in the Barents and Kara Sea through Koopman Mode Decomposition (KMD) and verify that the Koopman-based models are robust to the uncertainty in the data used to train the model.
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