Label Distribution Learning using the Squared Neural Family on the Probability Simplex

Daokun Zhang, Russell Tsuchida, Dino Sejdinovic

Keywords: Label distribution learning, uncertainty quantification, conformal prediction

TL;DR: This paper proposes a novel label distribution learning paradigm: estimate the distribution of label distribution vectors on the probability simplex, for quantifying the uncertainties of label distribution predictions.

Abstract: Label distribution learning (LDL) provides a framework wherein a distribution over categories rather than a single category is predicted, with the aim of addressing ambiguity in labeled data. Existing research on LDL mainly focuses on the task of point estimation, i.e., finding an optimal distribution in the probability simplex conditioned on the given sample. In this paper, we propose a novel label distribution learning model SNEFY-LDL, which estimates a probability distribution of all possible label distributions over the simplex, by unleashing the expressive power of the recently introduced Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), a new class of tractable probability models. As a way to summarize the fitted model, we derive the closed-form label distribution mean, variance and covariance conditioned on the given sample, which can be used to predict the ground-truth label distributions, construct label distribution confidence intervals, and measure the correlations between different labels. Moreover, more information about the label distribution prediction uncertainties can be acquired from the modeled probability density function. Extensive experiments on conformal prediction, active learning and ensemble learning are conducted, verifying SNEFY-LDL’s great effectiveness in LDL uncertainty quantification. The source code of this paper is available at https://github.com/daokunzhang/SNEFY-LDL.

Code Link: https://github.com/daokunzhang/SNEFY-LDL

Readers: auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Area_Chairs, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Reviewers, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Submission221/Authors, auai.org/UAI/2025/Conference/Submission221/Reproducibility_Reviewers

Submission Number: 221