- Keywords: trajectory prediction, motion forecasting, transformers, latent variable models
- Abstract: Robust multi-agent trajectory prediction is essential for the safe control of robotic systems. A major challenge is to efficiently learn a representation that approximates the true joint distribution of contextual, social, and temporal information to enable planning. We propose Latent Variable Sequential Set Transformers which are encoder-decoder architectures that generate scene-consistent multi-agent trajectories. We refer to these architectures as "AutoBots". The encoder is a stack of interleaved temporal and social multi-head self-attention modules that alternately perform equivariant processing across the temporal and social dimensions. The decoder can produce either the trajectory of one ego-agent or a distribution over the future trajectories for all agents in the scene. For the single-agent prediction case, our model achieves top results on the global NuScenes vehicle motion prediction leaderboard and produces strong results on the Argoverse vehicle prediction challenge. In the multi-agent setting, we evaluate on TrajNet to showcase the model's socially-consistent predictions. We also demonstrate our model on general sequences of sets and provide illustrative experiments modeling the sequential structure of the multiple strokes that make up symbols in the Omniglot data. A distinguishing feature of our method is that all models are trainable on a single desktop GPU (1080 Ti) in under 48h.
- One-sentence Summary: New Transformer-based architecture for socially consistent motion forecasting. Achieves SotA performance on NuScenes at a fraction of the compute of competing methods.
- Supplementary Material: zip