Data-driven Feynman–Kac Discovery with Applications to Prediction and Data Generation

Qi Feng, Guang Lin, Purav Matlia, Denny Serdarevic

Keywords: Feynman–Kac, BSDE, Data Generation

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven framework for discovering probabilistic laws underlying the Feynman–Kac formula. Specifically, we introduce the first stochastic SINDy method formulated under the risk-neutral probability measure to recover the backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) from a single pair of stock and option trajectories. Unlike existing approaches to identifying stochastic differential equations—which typically require ergodicity—our framework leverages the risk-neutral measure, thereby eliminating the ergodicity assumption and enabling BSDE recovery from limited financial time series data. Using this algorithm, we are able not only to make forward-looking predictions but also to generate new synthetic data paths consistent with the underlying probabilistic law.

Submission Number: 152