How Predictive Minds Explain and Control Dynamical SystemsDownload PDF

Published: 21 Nov 2022, Last Modified: 05 May 2023InfoCog @ NeurIPS 2022 PosterReaders: Everyone
Keywords: prediction, explanation, control, predictive mind, LTSM, psychology, dynamical systems
TL;DR: Even ``predictive" minds might find it easier to explain, or control, a dynamical system, than to predict it.
Abstract: We study the relationship between prediction, explanation, and control in artificial ``predictive minds''---modeled as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks---that interact with simple dynamical systems. We show how to operationalize key philosophical concepts, and model a key cognitive bias, ``alternative neglect''. Our results reveal, in turn, an unexpectedly complex relationship between prediction, explanation, and control. In many cases, ``predictive minds'' can be better at explanation and control than they are at prediction itself, a result that holds in the presence of heuristics expected under computational resource constraints.
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